Sunland Park, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

105
FXUS64 KEPZ 270437
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1037 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

 - Moisture increases through Tuesday with the most widespread
   thunderstorm activity being Monday and Tuesday.

 - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday, favoring
   western areas, as a monsoonal plume sets up.

-  After a cool down earlier in the week, temperatures rebound by
   next weekend as storm chances diminish.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

An inverted trough currently south of the Big Bend will continue its
trek westward across northern Mexico over the next several days
around the upper high over the Southeast. Our winds shift
southeasterly tonight in advance of the trough with moisture
beginning to increase. Dew points reach the 50s by the morning for
most areas, mixing out into the 40s during the afternoon,
producing enough moisture and instability to spark isolated to
scattered convection. Strong outflow gusts to 50 mph and blowing
dust are concerns Sun afternoon due to dew point depressions near
50 degrees and inverted-V forecast soundings. Heavy downpours and
localized flash flooding may accompany these storms with rain
rates of up to 2" per hour according to the RRFS as deeper
moisture filters in. Most of the activity dissipates around
sunset, but a few showers could linger into the overnight as PWs
approach 1.25" (for comparison, normal is around 1.1").

Monday and Tuesday still look like the most active days of the
period with PWs peaking close to 1.5" Monday night at KELP. As has
been seen so far this monsoon season with these moisture surges, the
Euro ensemble is more bullish on PWs than the GEFS early next week
(GEFS peaks 1.3-1.4"; EPS peaks 1.5"). The EPS has performed
better than the GEFS with its PW forecast. Meanwhile, the RRFS is
now within range and has been consistently showing PWs close to
1.7" (record levels) Monday night/Tue AM as the inverted trough
pushes through Chihuahua.

Regardless of just how much moisture we get, western areas and the
higher terrain are more favored to see heavy rainfall Mon/Tue.
Scattered to numerous storms are expected mainly west of the RGV
Monday PM with rain rates of 2-3" according to the RRFS and a low-
medium risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars and
other sensitive areas like Vado. Tuesday will see lower storm
coverage east of the RGV as the upper high drifts into the
Southern Plains, nudging the moisture plume towards eastern AZ.

The high will continue to push westward for the second half of
the week, eventually sitting over the Southern Rockies by next
weekend. The threat of flash flooding out west diminishes through
midweek while the high and its drier air gain influence. Storm
chances continue to lower for eastern areas as the best moisture
is confined to northern and western areas later in the week. The
exact location of the high will be crucial in determining storm
chances and how much recycled moisture we`ll have to work with.

Temperatures stay warm for Sunday, then cooling to slightly below
normal into midweek due to more cloud cover. Temps rebound later
in the week as high pressure moves overhead and the deeper
moisture is flushed out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the morning. Winds will shift
tonight to SE, increasing moisture throughout the period. Other
than SCT-BKN120 passing by KELP, mainly SKC persists through 18z.
Isolated showers and storms develop in the lowlands during the
afternoon, creating outflows up to 40kts and localized BLDU. 20-0z
is the most likely timeframe to see convection. Highest
confidence in direct impacts is at KLRU and KELP later in the
afternoon; lower chances for KTCS and KDMN. E-SE flow increases a
bit later in the period with gusts to near 20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Moisture pushes in tonight and tomorrow morning from the
southeast which will bring an increase in storm activity tomorrow
compared to what we`ll see today. In addition, min RH values will
increase to above critical thresholds for all areas generally
along and east of the Rio Grande. RH values of 10-15% will be seen
elsewhere. Gusty outflow winds will be a concern near storms.
Moisture continues to push into the area, so Monday and Tuesday
will be the best thunderstorm days with the best coverage.
Flooding will be an issue with storms, especially over recent burn
scars. High pressure begins influencing the area Wednesday and
onward with the monsoonal plume of moisture focused on locations
west of the RGV and into AZ. This is where the best storm coverage
will be with lesser activity focused out east. Moisture looks to
stick around allowing for warmer temperatures and normal monsoonal
activity, just may be more of a focus for storms out west. Min
RHs look to largely stay out of critical thresholds except for
portions of the lower valley Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  99  76  95 /   0  20  20  30
Sierra Blanca            67  92  68  89 /  10  20  10  50
Las Cruces               69  97  70  91 /   0  20  20  30
Alamogordo               70  94  68  91 /   0  20  20  30
Cloudcroft               52  72  49  69 /   0  40  20  60
Truth or Consequences    69  96  70  91 /   0  10  10  30
Silver City              65  92  64  87 /   0  20  20  70
Deming                   68 100  72  95 /   0  20  30  30
Lordsburg                67  99  71  94 /   0  10  20  50
West El Paso Metro       76  97  75  93 /   0  20  20  30
Dell City                70  96  71  93 /  10  10  10  30
Fort Hancock             75 100  74  95 /  10  30  20  50
Loma Linda               69  91  67  86 /   0  20  20  40
Fabens                   74  98  74  94 /   0  20  20  30
Santa Teresa             73  97  73  92 /   0  20  20  30
White Sands HQ           75  97  73  92 /   0  20  20  30
Jornada Range            70  96  70  91 /   0  20  20  40
Hatch                    69 100  71  94 /   0  20  20  30
Columbus                 71 100  73  94 /   0  20  30  30
Orogrande                70  94  69  90 /   0  20  20  30
Mayhill                  57  84  55  80 /  10  40  20  60
Mescalero                57  83  55  80 /   0  40  20  60
Timberon                 56  81  54  76 /   0  30  20  50
Winston                  57  89  59  84 /   0  20  10  50
Hillsboro                65  96  66  91 /   0  20  20  40
Spaceport                67  95  68  91 /   0  20  20  30
Lake Roberts             57  92  59  87 /   0  20  20  80
Hurley                   63  94  65  89 /   0  20  20  60
Cliff                    65 100  68  94 /   0  20  20  70
Mule Creek               62  95  64  91 /   0  10  10  60
Faywood                  66  93  67  88 /   0  20  30  60
Animas                   67  99  70  94 /   0  10  30  50
Hachita                  66  97  69  91 /   0  20  30  40
Antelope Wells           67  97  68  92 /   0  20  40  40
Cloverdale               67  94  67  89 /   0  20  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson