Sunland Park, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

153
FXUS64 KEPZ 271853
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, becoming more
    isolated this weekend as overall coverage decreases. As
    usual, the best chances for thunderstorms will be over area
    mountains.

-   Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding, especially
    in the Sacramento Mountains, and near recent burn scars.

-   Better rain chances possible heading into mid to late next
    week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

As of Friday morning, the monsoonal moisture plume extends from
around Deming to Hatch and up to Salinas Peak and eastward. In
addition, surface moisture is reflected in this way as well where
dewpoints in far eastern areas of the CWA are in the U-50s/L-60s and
L-50s dewpoints found in western areas. This mornings 12Z sounding
shows quite the saturated column with PW values of 1.25" which is
just about the same as yesterdays 12Z sounding. The average PW for
this time of year is around 0.86", so we can expect well above
average PWs in the stream of monsoonal moisture. Model PWs are
suggesting around 1.0" on the western end of the plume and upwards
of 1.4" on the eastern side. In addition, slow low and mid level
flow will continue to allow for these storms to pop up somewhat high
and then fall back down triggering off new storms around the decayed
storm leading to flash flooding issues today. Can continue to expect
similar threats as yesterday where flash flooding from thunderstorms
will be the biggest threat. Some hail continues to be possible but
not expecting any severe hail today. Plenty of lightning will be
associated with these storms as well. Can expect storm activity to
initiate around 12 PM in the area mountains and spreading towards
the lowlands. Less intense thunderstorms expected out west where
moisture is lacking.

By Saturday, high pressure tries to establish itself over the area
leading to a little bit of drying/lesser thunderstorm activity
Saturday through Monday. Although high pressure is not very strong,
it will help to try and suppress some of the convection Sunday and
especially Monday as the high really tries to set up over us. Can
expect run of the mill monsoonal thunderstorms initiating over the
area mountains and spreading to the lowlands during the late
afternoon hours. Perhaps some localized flooding is possible due to
above average PWs and weak shear.

By Tuesday, long range models are suggesting a trough over southern
California moving eastward which will help to funnel moisture over
the Borderland once again. If this trend continues, we might be
looking at another round of efficient rain making thunderstorms
throughout much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Another round of monsoonal afternoon thunderstorms will be seen
today. Storms are already popping up over the higher terrain and
will spread to the desert lowlands in the late afternoon/early
evening. KTCS and KDMN have the best shot at seeing a storm
today/tonight as mentioned by the PROB30s but KLRU and KELP have a
chance, but models are suggesting thunderstorms fizzle out mostly
by the time they get to these terminals, but future amendments may
be needed. Gusty outflow winds from storms will be more common out
west near KDMN, but not expecting any severe wind gusts from
storms. Storm activity will diminish over the evening hours and
should cease by the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Rain chances expected each afternoon, but this weekend and early
next week will feature a bit of a downtick in activity as drier air
filters in. Critical min RH values return to the Gila region and
western lowland areas as soon as tomorrow and spread towards the
Rio Grande by Sunday. Locations along and west of the Continental
Divide are still highlighted for critical min RHs Monday but
better rain chances exist Tuesday and onward bringing min RHs
above critical areawide. Better moisture flushes in midweek
allowing for thunderstorms to be very efficient rain producers
which could bring trouble to recently burned areas.

Wind speeds stay below critical thresholds each day with surface
winds generally 5-15 mph each afternoon becoming calm overnight.
Ventilation rates will be fair to very good over the weekend
becoming good to very good Monday and Tuesday then fair to good
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  94  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            65  87  66  91 /  50  40  20  30
Las Cruces               66  91  67  95 /  20  10  10   0
Alamogordo               66  93  68  97 /  20  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               49  70  52  74 /  20  50  10  30
Truth or Consequences    67  94  69  97 /  20  10  10  10
Silver City              60  89  63  92 /  30  20  10  10
Deming                   66  95  68  99 /  30  10  10  10
Lordsburg                65  95  67  99 /  30  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       72  93  74  96 /  20  10  20  10
Dell City                68  91  68  95 /  30  20  10  20
Fort Hancock             71  93  72  97 /  50  30  10  20
Loma Linda               65  85  67  89 /  30  10  10  10
Fabens                   70  93  71  97 /  30  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             69  91  70  95 /  20  10  20  10
White Sands HQ           71  93  73  96 /  20  10  20  10
Jornada Range            66  93  68  96 /  20  10  10  10
Hatch                    66  95  67  99 /  30  10  10  10
Columbus                 69  94  71  98 /  40  10  20   0
Orogrande                66  90  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
Mayhill                  54  81  57  84 /  20  50  10  40
Mescalero                53  82  56  85 /  20  50  10  30
Timberon                 51  77  54  81 /  20  40  10  30
Winston                  53  87  56  89 /  20  10  10  20
Hillsboro                61  93  64  96 /  30  20  10  10
Spaceport                63  93  65  96 /  30  10  10  10
Lake Roberts             56  90  58  93 /  30  20  10  20
Hurley                   60  90  63  94 /  30  20  10  10
Cliff                    62  97  64 100 /  20  10  10  10
Mule Creek               59  94  62  96 /  10  10  10  10
Faywood                  62  90  65  93 /  30  20  10  10
Animas                   66  95  68  99 /  20  10  10  10
Hachita                  64  93  66  97 /  40  10  20  10
Antelope Wells           66  93  67  97 /  40  20  20  10
Cloverdale               64  90  66  93 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500
     Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher